MELLINGER April 2019 Spring Newsletter
RICHARD N. MELLINGER
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April 2019 Spring Newsletter
I’m a little slow getting started on this newsletter. It seemed to me for a few days that it was a ho-hum proof round. There was very little change on most bulls on my price list. The only thing that was consistent was the DPR seemed lower. I figured there must have been an across the board adjustment. I found out later that those doing the proofs were surprised too. There was no adjustment internally. The top bulls seemed to be down about 40 TPI points and the lower bulls only about 20 points, because of the D.P.R. change.
As the days went by and I started delving into the bulls that dropped, it got more and more concerning. Jedi was down some again, but Modesty dropped 69 more points, on top of 40 point drop last time and 110 point drop in August. Lots of his 355 sons also went down. Jedi’s 266 sons that show up on Redbook Plus fell off too. But just as I’m writing this on Friday, I discover another big name bull took a drop – almost missed it because he wasn’t coded active. Bandares added 231 new daughters to the 45 he had in December and went down over 600 lbs. milk and type as well for a 180 point TPI drop. I imagine most of his 101 sons went down as well. Montross has gone down over 260 TPI points in the 4 summaries since Dec. 2017! Another bull that was a high profile bull was Seagull-Bay Charismatic. He went down over 450 points in one year – he’s not even 5 years old yet, and he’s already 100 TPI points lower than Reality-Red, who was born in 2003.
The bulls that take big jumps (like Rowdy) have very fewsons! That’s why I don’t think the argument that “on average” the genomic bulls are moving us forward like some would have you believe. Rowdy has a whopping total of 5 sons show up on Redbook Plus. Another bull that went way up was #17 (Piledriver) on the TPI list – I didn’t put him on my list. He jumped 146 TPI points and has TWOsons in A.I. He’s at the identical stage Bandares is (just adding 1stmilking daughters) and these kind of fluctuations do not give confidence to the science of genomics. Read the inserted page for more on this subject.
Looking at the top 20 TPI bulls this time there were 6 bulls not in that group in December – #2 Rowdy, #12 Magnus, #14 Phantom, #17 Piledriver who all had fewdaughters last time but were too low reliability and/or had only genomic type proof. #20 Decoy was #24 in Dec. and #16 Helix is a first-time proof – milk & type – and looks promising. More on that later.
Other bulls that took jumps in TPI since December include #1 Dante, #2 Rowdy, #7 Harper, Brewmaster, Millenium AND I noticed Avalanche sons did quite well so I looked Avalanche’s proof up, even though he’s dead and very short supply. Avalanche jumped 31 TPI points and he’s now 4.44 type.
McCutchen sired the #1 TPI bull and the #1 Type bull. The next highest McCutchen son for type is nearly a point lower! The next highest McCutchen son for TPI is over 250 points lower than Dante! That’s pretty fascinating!
There are 28 different sires that sired the top 50 TPI bulls. There are 8 Mogul sons and 8 Montross sons. Of course Montross is a Mogul son too! There were 4 AltaOak sons and 3 each for Supersire and Jacey and 2 Balisto sons. 22 others had one son each.
48 of the 101 bulls over 2508 TPI are less than 100% RHA – only 13 are included on my list. Ranger-Red is the only R&W bull on the top 100 and there are no red carriers that high. The red carrierbull, Symion@ 2474 TPI is exceptionaland so is Piranha(RC) on the back @ 2302 TPI, among proven bulls. Both are limited availability – or will be, I’m told.
The Proven Bull List is my green sheet. Let’s look at some individual bulls . . .
- Mr McCut DANTE– this bull has been highly underrated because the genomic prediction had Delta and Denver higher than him most of the time.Dante added 283 new daughters in milk and has 840 total in only 87 herds with 181 classified daughters averaging 78.4 – 81.8 age adjusted. He doesn’t have the extreme rear udder height that Delta has but more stature, strength, body depth, rump width etc. that you’d expect from a McCutchen over a Mogul. He’s #5 for milk, 10thin the breed for pounds fat, 3rdfor protein and #4 net merit. Priced a bit out of the market unfortunately.
- ABS ROWDY– much has already been said about his proof going up from December’s proof on only 50 daughters. He now has 243 in 58 herds with 25 classified that only average 73.6 – 77.9 age adjusted. Good rear udders but protect for udder depth on this high milk bull. His dam is VG87 Mogul w/ an Ex mammary.
- EDGRUBICON– his dam is Ex94 on Feet & Legs and that certainly is his strength.He’s #11 in the breed. He’s also #2 for pounds fat and #3 net merit. Use him as a strength bull like his aAa tells you, but he really is no-holes linear-wise. 2% on calving ease.
- Mr Mogul DELTA– he has over 6000 daughters on milk in 474 herds with 1764 classified that average 80.1 – 83.1 age adjusted! He’s #5 for net merit and is #29 for udder composite – the highest udder composite for all bulls over $800 net merit. Very moderate on the frame traits, but everyone says they are very correct. He’s only 5.6% on calving ease. If he wasn’tsold as sexed semen all his life would calving ease be higher? There would be a lot of demand if he was more reasonably priced – I know that.
- Uecker Supersire JOSUPER– this IS the #1 milk bull and a bit better linear than Rowdy. He has over 9300 daughters in milk and 2655 classified that average 79.4 – 82.4 age adjusted.
- S-S-I Montross DUKE– He’s the onlybull over 2000 milk and plus .10% fat or higher. He’s #15 for milk, #4 for protein, #1 for lbs. fat! There are 11 of the top 23 Montross sons that are over 1.75 on both type and udders. I have 8 on my list. Duke is the clear winner for production, but #53 Difference might be the best balanced. Protect Duke for F&L composite.
- Cookiecutter HARPER– this Balisto son is a maternal brother to Humblenkind on my genomic sheet. He’s related also to Hangtime (513 aAa), CC Jedi (426 aAa) and Had Me (621 aAa) as well as Helix, Healer, Hotspot, and Haniko! Harper’s dam is an Ex91 Epic from a Man-O-Man. He has 429 daughters in 163 herds with just 59 classified. His linear shows high pins, but a slight set to the leg. At 5.8 C.E. he’s the bull to use if you want to correct the problem of too close teats, for your heifer population. Use on Solomon’s, Milleniums, Explode, Byway, Unix, Meridian and Aftershock daughters.
- AOT Silver HELIX– his dam is a VG88 Ex mammary Supersire, second dam is a VG88 Ex mammary Man-O-Man from a VG88 Goldwyn that goes back to Durham’s maternal line. So “Had Me” on my genomic sheet is a maternal brother. Helix is the first Silver son proven and he’s also the highest for pounds of fat. He has 134 daughters in 40 herds with just 16 classified so far averaging 79.1 – 83.0 age adjusted. He has a solid linear with no high pins, slight set to the leg and teat length near zero. Helix went up over 200 lbs. milk and 38 TPI points over his Dec. genomic proof. Very reasonably priced!
- Ladys-Manor Montross LOYALTY– I’d like to compare the Montross sons that I’ve picked as the cream of the crop. Namely #23 Loyalty, #45 Herwin, #46 Scenario, #53 Difference, #60 Premium and the one right after Premium on my sheet “Jerald”. #6 Duke is a little different in that he’s higher production, but minus for F&L. These 6 seem to be more similar. They are all born in 2014 so they are all at their 2ndmilk proofs. They are from VG85 to Ex91 dams – cow family bulls. It looks like Loyalty, Difference and Premium are higher milk, and Herwin, Scenario, and Jerald are a little lower. Judging body types by linears it looks like Herwin is the only one withoutthe fairly straight leg you generally have with Montross. Premium & Difference sire somewhat high pins. Herwin, Difference and Jerald are not as tall and strong as the other three. All have successfully bred away from the minus fat percent and higher S.C.S. that Montross exhibits. Difference and Premium are lower than the others for D.P.R. Calving ease ranges from 6.3% to 7.7%. Very interesting comparing these – no clear-cut winners or losers. Loyalty is the highest priced – Jerald is the lowest. The other 4 are bunched pretty similarly priced. Scenario might be my pick if you like a little more stature, strength and body depth – and Herwin is my pick if you don’t put any emphasis on stature, strength or body depth. Ok – I kicked out Premium & Difference for high pins, then kicked out Jerald for too straight leg, then Loyalty for higher price. Scenario and Herwin have the least faults. I’d go with Difference if you wanted a little more milk and Jerald if you wanted the cheapest.
- Co-Op RENEGADE– Wow- this bull is pretty special! #3 TPI of all McCutchen sons! He’s on the top 50 of all bulls for pounds of fat! He’s #38 for type and #6 for F&L composite – in fact only Atwood is higher AND with a higher reliability. The only bulls over 2.40 on F&Land 2400 TPIare Rubicon, Renegade, Symion and Deman! Now that’s good company. Renegade added 464 new daughters and has 2369 in milk and 382 classified that average 79.1 – 82.2 age adjusted. Trust me – the actual scores will go upover time! Renegades are tall and fancy with a level and wide rump and great udders. At 7% C.E. and high components he could be the bull to use on the Meridian and Byway daughters as well as Bradell, Capital Gain, High Octane and Saturn daughters.
- Bacon-Hill Pety MODESTY– I hit this bull pretty hard on the front page for his big drops. The number of sons the industry used is way over board for just going on a hair sample. He added 874 new daughters and only had 538 last time. He more than doubled his classified daughters to 492 now that average 79.5 – 82.8 age adjusted – Yes, that’s higher than Renegade, but check back with me 5 years from now. Isn’t genetics interesting? Mostly I guess because we are trying to outguess what the computer is adjusting for and because our data collection is so incomplete. If every cow were on DHIA and every cow was classified for at least 2 calvings it would be better. Someone suggested a simple system of just an average of how long a bulls daughters lasted. No – not P.L. – that’s an estimate of how long they should last, modified by production and probably other things. But just a figure on what % of a bull’s daughters are still alive 365 days after they first calve – then what percent are still alive 365 days after that and so on. Yes, the information would be too late for the fast paced roll we are on, but it would tell us who is performing and who isn’t.
« Snowbiz SYMION(RC) – this #2Red or RC bull for TPI held his proof. He added 241 daughters and now has 492 in 99 herds with 238 on his type proof. Among all bulls 1.80 type 2.50 udders 2.50 F&L – there are only Symion (RC), Avalanche (RC), Deman, Atwood, and Maximus. Guess whois highest for milk, highest for D.P.R., lowest for C.E., highest for P.L., highest net merit and lowest for price? Yes, Symion is $10cheaperthan all the others! He’s among the top 50 for udders and #5 for F&L. He is 5.7% for calving ease. Use him to make the moderate sized kind of cow, but make her very, very correctly!
« Mapel Wood BREWMASTER– he’s just over 8 years old now and starting to add second crop daughters. He had about 4000 in December and added over 200 more and has over 3300 classified. He went up on milk, fat, protein, P.L., type, and F&L composite. This 6.8% C.E., very high % fat, A2A2 bull is making daughters with strength and openness, along with slope to the rump. Good bull to fix those cows with the rear teats crossing too.
« EDG DEMAN– hey this looks like quite a bull for the guy that wants good looking, high testing cattle. 686 daughters on his type proof average 81.1 – 84.0 age adjusted – that’s in the top 10% of all active bulls. Protect only for high pins.
« Mountfield SSI Dcy MOGUL– this Ex93 point iconic bull now has over 51,000 daughters in production. If you found out tomorrow that he’s dead, would you say “Oh well – I’ll use his sons”, OR would you say, “I wish I’d have bought a little more when he was less than $30”?
« Amighetti Numero UNO, BRIGHAM and UNIX– Uno has nearly ½ as many daughters as Mogul, but he doesn’t have the straight leg problem. Brigham & Unix are both very good sons. Uno is known for his slow-maturing daughters that are high % fat, have low S.C.S. and breed back easily. He’s #17 in the breed for D.P.R. and Brigham is #7 for D.P.R. and still maintains over 2.50on typeand udders. Unix isn’t as high on D.P.R. but he’s taken the type & udders to a new level of 3.00on both! Plus he’s 6.1% on calving ease. All three should be used whenever you can!
« Buck-H-Creek Mgl PIRANHA P(RC) – this is a very uniqueMogul son because he’s ared carrier. He’s also uniquebecause he is polled. Among RC bulls, only Avalanche & Daniel could be considered even close to Piranha. Avalanche ishigher on type, but about ½ the milk of Piranha and, yeah, he will cost you hundreds of dollars. Daniel is similar on type and udders but is minus 288 on milk. Among polledbulls there is no equal, proven or genomic on type and udder composite. Webster P is one of the best and he’s over 1.00 lower on udder composite – as a genomic bull – not a bull with 162 daughters classified. Among allHolstein bulls he’s among the top 50 for type, and he’s #3 for udder composite. The two above him are -1200 and -288 for milk. Actually, Unix is the closest to a comparable bull – Unix is $40 and he’s not polled or R.C. Do you see why I’m telling you what a bargain he is? His dam is an Excellent Secure daughter with an Ex91 mammary from a Lawn Boy. He’s 8.1% calving ease. He’s moderately plus in almost all linear traits with slight set to the leg, slightly high pins – but exceptional udders! He’s actually 5.99 on rear udder height – that’s the highest!
« Maverick CRUSH– he certainly got the low S.C.S. gene from his sire and maternal grandsire. He’s also #5 for Type, #36 for udders and #48 for F&L Composite. He’s breakeven for components and with Doorman and Uno I would have thought it would be higher. Crush’s dam is the 2nddam to Chill and Capture who were hot a few years ago. There is a new bull named “CEO” on the back of my genomic sheet. He’s a Jordy from a High Octane who is a maternal sister to Crush. This is a pretty good looking red carrier bull that’s 2-1-6 aAa and A2A2 and no Apple in his pedigree. Anyway, the TOP 20 TYPE BULLSare these: Avalanche (RC) 4.44, Jacoby 4.03, Solomon 3.91, Atwood 3.71, Crush 3.57, Defiant (RC) 3.57, Chrome 3.56, Doorman 3.51, Blake 3.51, Maven 3.50, Archrival 3.49, Millenium 3.48, Brokaw 3.40, Marvel 3.39, McGucci (RC) 3.38, Byway 3.37, DeVolmer Hero 3.35, Baird 3.32, Mr Brash 3.31, Monterey 3.28, Maximus 3.28, Nova 3.28, Deman 3.24, Beemer 3.24, Airlift 3.23.
« Mr D Apple DIAMONDBACK(RC) – this Ex93 bull added 930 new daughters in production and has 1741 total in 738 herds with 616 classified. When I look at allthe proven Red or RC bulls for type over 3.00 the list is pretty thin: 1) Avalanche (RC) 4.44, 2) Defiant (RC) 3.57, 3) Diamondback (RC) 3.19. He’s a Doorman from an Ex94 Talent from Apple.
This list for highest age adjusted score of the daughters on bulls that have enough daughters to be at least 95% reliable for type are:
Avalanche (RC) 86.7
Defiant (RC) 85.2
Diamondback RC) 85.1
High Octane 85.0
P.Sh. Contender-Red 85.0
Golden Dreams 84.6
Rainy (RC) 84.5
Gold Chip 84.1
Integral (RC) 84.0
Capital Gain 83.8
Numero Uno 83.8
Addiction P-Red 83.5
« Luck-E AWESOME-RED– this absolutely awesome bull added 262 new daughters in milk and has 750 total in 376 herds. They may not be the wettest 2 year olds, but his 374 classified daughters have beautiful udders. He is #1 for udders at 4.10! Here are the TOP UDDER BULLS: Awesome-Red 4.10, Daniel (RC) 3.78, Piranha-P (RC) 3.76, Avalanche (RC) 3.63, Dark 3.54, Jacoby 3.41, Link Up 3.42, Absolute-Red 3.37 Merrick 3.36, 1stClass 3.34, Unix 3.29, Byway 3.26, AltaRoble 3.23, AltaSpring 3.22, Deligent 3.20, Integral (RC) 3.19, Carney 3.17, Paride 3.14, Golddust 3.12, Mogul 3.11.
Since Awesome is only available in sexed semen, the only Awesome son that comes up on Redbook Plus is “Kix-Red”. You will find him on my “Genomic” sheet. His dam is a 94-2E Guthrie from a 94-2E Baltimor from an Ex92 Advent that is a full sister to Advent Kandie Ex95, who was Reserve Grand at Madison in 2014. The Guthrie dam actually sold in the Luck-E sale last week. She’ll be 8 years old this Fall and sold for $10,000. A full sister to Kix went Ex90 @ 2-11 and sold for $14,500. At least four Awesome daughters brought over $20,000 – one brought $30,000! A Diamondback really caught everyone’s attention, and I liked what I saw of the McGucci daughters there. It was a fun couple of days and really inspiring to see such a great uddered herd in pretty commercial conditions – just well tended to!
A couple other Luck-E bulls I’ll mention are the top 2 on my “Young Sire” sheet. Asteroid is an Amo P from McGucci Afro – who just finished her 2-10 record with 29,000 milk of 6.1% fat 3.6% protein. Afro is from Asia 94-2E as an 11 year old. Asia’s son “America” is really starting to get attention! A high scoring individual at a young age – word is he’s making some really nice calves. I also have an Absolute maternal brother who is 6-4-2-5 on aAa. If you are using aAa for mating your cows – which I recommend – you will find manyof the codes you need on this young sire sheet. These are not your typical A.I. bulls. This sheet generally has bulls out of cows that are older – have stood the test of time. Most of these bulls I am marketing for the breeders themselves, who are still milking cows or they are “Triple-Hil” sires. I market semen for them as well as A.I. Total, Field of Dreams and many other smaller organizations. I can obviously access semen from anywhere that I have a connection. If you are looking for colored breeds or even beef semen – I have some on hand or can most likely get what you want.
I still have several good used semen tanks if you are interested, call me. If I don’t stop at your farm regularly, just call – or I can ship by UPS if you are further out of the state. I will be traveling to Northeast Ohio mid-May. Call me if you want me to stop. Also, I’ll be driving to the National Convention in Wisconsin in June – another opportunity to connect with me to save on shipping costs. Shipping is only $75 to most areas – and you get free shipping for any order over $1200. I just want you to get what you want – not what they want to sell you . . . and at the best price. To that end, I will offer a “newsletter special” of $1 off per unit of any bull that is priced at $9 or less – on any sheet for April or May purchases. It’s time to stock up a little. Call me toll-free at 1-877-530-2687. I will call you back if you leave a message.
Genomics 2009 and 2019
I’ve always wanted to look back at the genomic bulls to compare how they turned out years later. I thought this should be done even back in 2009 – SO – I saved on a shelf most all the genomic sheets that I went over with a fine tooth comb back then. Yes, they were dusty, but I’ve looked at them from time to time since then, however never really dug into it. When “Hoards Dairyman” had an article in the Feb. 25thedition, I decided I should do a little more digging. This isn’t meant to be a rebuttal of that article, but let’s just say I was inspired.
There was a lotI didn’t understand in that article (given my limited education), but overall I thought the general leaning of the article was if you look at the 623 bulls that had no daughters but had genomics done in 2009, and today had at least 250 daughters in the proofs – if you compared these bulls on average you basically got what was predicted.
My first reaction when reading it was . . . who cares how 623 bulls on average came out? It’s the top 100, or top 20, or even the top 10 that get all the attention. And it was pointed out that “Freddie” who was #13on TPI had 929 sons and Mel-Crest Altarazor who was #80for TPI only had 21 sons sampled. Freddie is now 2102 TPI and Razor is 2268 TPI. This is a bigproblem!
For my comparison here I started looking at April 2009 bulls because I couldn’t find my box with January in it at the time. I’m also only listing milk, %fat, type, udder and F&L – as well as TPI. Pay more attention to TPI because that doesn’t change when you have the rollback which probably happened in 2010 and 2015. Irregardless of the numbers – it’s the bulls names that matter. Five to ten years later you should still recognize the topbulls – you sure paid enough for their semen as young genomic bulls.
April 2009 Top 20 genomic bulls were: December 2018 those figures are:
|Milk||% F||Type||Udder||F&L||TPI||# sons|
|Laeschway Jet BOWSER||1963||-.06||3.60||3.91||2.88||2379||95|
|Mr Regalcreek SHOT AL||1853||.17||3.92||3.59||2.66||2378||29|
|Dream-Prairie SHADOW BOXER||1797||.19||4.32||3.64||3.19||2371||16|
|Klassic Big TIME||1213||.05||4.97||4.59||4.55||2358||19|
|Coyne-Farms Shottle YANCE||2517||.08||3.16||3.32||1.50||2334||?|
|Mr Regalcreek Shot ALAN||2103||.07||4.04||2.88||3.07||2324||4|
|UFM-Dubs Alta MOTTO||908||.21||3.70||4.02||2.97||2321||?|
|Springway Blvr CHASE||2136||.05||3.32||2.90||2.71||2308||?|
|Langs-Twin-B CR CASSINO||1690||.09||3.19||2.82||3.09||2306||25|
|Bosside P.S. PRENTICE||1727||.12||3.94||3.44||2.14||2287||7|
|Rabur M PADDY||975||.09||3.94||3.44||3.19||2282||3|
|Laeschway Jet BOWSER||125||-.09||.28||1.07||.77||1945|
|Mr Regalcreek SHOT AL||0||.13||.97||1.19||.51||2015|
|Dream-Prairie SHADOW BOXER||-375||.17||.95||1.00||1.09||1906|
|Klassic Big TIME||-1182||.07||1.57||1.10||1.42||1800|
|Coyne-Farms Shottle YANCE||1451||.03||.95||1.67||.29||2141|
|Mr Regalcreek Shot ALAN||456||.01||.76||.78||.38||1842|
|UFM-Dubs Alta MOTTO||-925||.21||1.03||1.21||.99||1962|
|Springway Blvr CHASE||1130||-.03||1.45||1.17||.05||1995|
|Langs-Twin-B CR CASSINO||-492||.04||.62||.86||1.85||1814|
|Bosside P.S. PRENTICE||-660||.09||.35||1.38||-.02||1702|
|Rabur M PADDY||-220||.03||.96||1.00||1.51||1956|
There are the figures. You can make your own observations, but a few I’ve made are:
- Two bulls that I can say there is a possibility of selling today are the 2 highest for type in 2009.
- The lowest bull for “TPI over parent average” in 2009 has the lowest amount of drop in TPI in the 10 years since.
- The two lowest milk bulls are still the 2 lowest milk bulls.
- Milk, type etc. numbers are way over-inflated, but components % fluctuate little.
- The 2 bulls that the dam went up in classification the most (5 points) are the two highest type bulls today.
- The only one over 3.00 on S.C.S. in 2009 is the highest one today for S.C.S.
Next I looked at whether any of these bulls had sons that amounted to anything. There are 4 that I couldn’t find information on and a half dozen with fewsons. The rest had from 12 sons to 95 sons! Noneof which were really breed improvers!
Further down the Top 100 TPI list in 2009 were: #22 Dorcy, #26 Aftershock, #31 Freddie, #38 Massey, #42 Seimers Toys Hero, #59 Destry, #61 Hill, #99 Super. Only you can decide whether a system that can pick the top 100 but only have 8-12 of them be of any account. The next 100 bulls had Mel-Crest Altarazor (the highest net merit bull today of all those from 2009) as well as Bradell, Atlantic and McNuggets. #266was Jett Air and #304is Dempsey. #376was Regancrest AltaIota, #461is Guthrie, #518is Windbrook. So the question is – IS THIS SYSTEM PICKING OUT THE BREED IMPROVERS?
I went to December 2010 and the top of the line bulls in the top 20are Facebook, Robust, Bookem, Shamrock, Observer. And only 4 or so in the next 80 are of any account.
I do think there were changes made that it is better than it was in the first couple years, but we’ll have to look at that in a few more years. Right now I’m not convinced we are getting what we are paying for when we are paying $20 – $30 – $40 – $50 or higher for some of these supposedly high bulls.
MELLINGER April 2019 Spring Newsletter